Prospects for Advanced Engineering Design Based on Risk Assessment

Abstract

Current approaches to the design of structures are based on the concept of target probability of failure. This value is, however, often specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, the traditional probabilistic approach cannot properly consider gross errors and accidental situations, both of which are becoming more frequent causes of failure. This paper shows that it is useful to supplement a probabilistic design procedure by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account the consequences of all unfavourable events. It is anticipated that in the near future advanced engineering design will include criteria of acceptable risks in addition to the traditional probabilistic conditions.