International Probabilistic Workshop 2022


  • Editorial, Foreword


These are the proceedings of the 19th  International Probabilistic Workshop, which was held in Stellenbosch, South Africa on 8-9 September 2022. The event was co-hosted by the Department of Civil Engineering at the Stellenbosch University and the Klokner Institute of the Czech Technical University. Since its inception, IPW has aimed to provide a suitable platform for sharing ideas and knowledge in the field of probabilistic reliability and risk assessment and has been hosted by many European countries, such as Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. This was the first time IPW took place outside Europe.

The overarching theme of IPW 2022 is the Assessment of existing structures with the following sub-topics:

  • Models for resistances and load effects
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Service life estimates
  • Risk acceptance criteria
  • Optimisation and decision making

The workshop offered an excellent opportunity to engage in scientific debate, exchange knowledge, connect with colleagues, and also showcased the scenery of the Cape Winelands. The technical programme included five keynote lectures presented by distinguished experts:

  • Colin Caprani critically compared causal statistical inference with the approaches utilising artificial intelligence and machine learning.
  • Milan Holický discussed the reliability of structures stricken by a tornado.
  • Johan Retief focused on the specific issues of assessment of existing structures when considering the climate change effects.
  • Peter Tanner discussed the differences between the assessment of existing structures and structural design from the perspective of practical applications, focusing on the required level of information and its updating through the process.
  • Sebastian Thöns integrated the decision analysis method into structural reliability assessment and demonstrated how expected utilities can be evaluated before the implementation of structural interventions.

The presenters of peer-reviewed papers at the conference came from 11 countries from three continents (Africa, Australia, and Europe), delivering a further 28 contributions, which covered a broad range of topics, including reliability of existing buildings and bridges, uncertainty quantification, durability analysis, statistical treatment of data, environmental effects, risk assessment and cost optimisation, applications of advanced techniques in the assessment of existing structures, information about developments of new codes of practice, and the difference between the assessment of existing structures and structural design. 

All conference papers were peer reviewed by at least two independent anonymous reviewers, with the review process supervised and coordinated by three experts in the field (listed below).

Organising institutions:
Stellenbosch University is one the most prestigious universities in South Africa and its students add to the exciting life of the town. Starting out from humble beginnings in April 1918, Stellenbosch University today is home to ten faculties, a vibrant and cosmopolitan community of more than 30 000 students and 3000 staff, spread over five campuses. The Civil Engineering Department within the Faculty of Engineering is home to 26 full-time lecturing staff members, 500 undergraduate and 200 postgraduate students.

Klokner Institute was founded in 1921 as a part of the Czech Technical University in Prague (established in 1707). Within its research, experimental, and educational activities, the Institute mainly focuses on the theory of structural reliability; experimental verification, surveys and monitoring of existing structures and bridges; mechanics of composite materials and development and verification of new concrete technologies and new building materials; and degradation of concrete and masonry structures. Research results of the Klokner Institute are being systematically implemented in civil engineering structures, mechanical, chemical, and power engineering. The Institute is a leading institution in national and international standardization in the construction industry.

Scientific comittee:
Michael Beer
Thomas Braml
Daniel Cantero
Colin Caprani
Joan Casas
Robby Caspeele
Peter Day
Dimitris Diamantidis
Michael Faber
Oliver Fisher
Hooman Ghasemi
Michel Ghosn
Ramon Hingorani
Milan Holicky
Manfred Keuser
Jochen Kohler
Petr Konecny
Marc Maes
Giuseppe Mancini
Jose Matos
Christina McLeod
Lukas Novak
Eugene O’Brien
Benedict Olalusi
Daniel Oliveira
Johan Retief
Chris Roth
Arpad Rozsas
John Sørensen
Raphael Steenbergen
Mark Stewart
Daniel Straub
Alfred Strauss
Bruno Sudret
Peter Tanner
Sebastian Thons
Dimitri Val
Ruben van Coile
Pieter van Gelder

Local organizing comittee:
Roman Lenner
Nico de Koker
Celeste Viljoen
Miroslav Sykora
Dirk Proske

Coordinators of the peer review process:
Miroslav Sykora
Roman Lenner
Nico de Koker

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How to Cite

Foreword, E. . (2022). International Probabilistic Workshop 2022. Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings, 36. Retrieved from