Structural assessment and expected utility gain

Authors

  • Sebastian Thöns Lund University, Faculty of Engineering, Box 117, 221 00 Lund, Sweden; BAM Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing, Unter den Eichen 87, 12205 Berlin, Germany

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14311/APP.2022.36.0015

Keywords:

structural condition management, action uncertainty modelling, action and information value

Abstract

This paper contains an introduction, probabilistic formulation, and exemplification (1) of system state and utility actions, (2) system state and utility action value analysis and (3) a threshold formulation for a predicted information and action decision analysis. The approaches build upon structural condition assessment and provide a basis for the condition management by maximising the expected utility for information and actions before information acquirement and action implementation. Following the basic distinction of system state and utility actions, strengthening, replacement, repair, load reduction and consequence reduction actions are formulated. With an exemplary study encompassing an expected utility calculation and an action value analysis, it is demonstrated how expected utility optimal physical system changes can be identified before implementation. The threshold formulation for a predicted information and action decision analysis relies on the equality of the decision theoretical posterior action optimality condition. By extending the exemplary predicted action decision analyses with different structural health information (SHI), the threshold formulation is exemplified and the optimal condition management strategies are identified.

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Published

2022-08-18