Development of a realistic scenario for the thermal energy demand of residential buildings in Bavaria till 2050

Abstract

To achieve the climate protection goals, enormous efforts must be undertaken in all sectors: households, industry, commerce, and transport. Following a straightforward approach, the political objectives foresee, that in the building sector a massive reduction of energy use for the heat supply is accomplished. However, previous investigations have shown that this reduction of energy consumption is not feasible. Older buildings exhibit especially high energy demand and emissions. Yet, due to the low refurbishment rate, no substantial change of the heat demand can be expected within the next decades. By fully renovating the entire residential building stock, approximately 70 % of the final energy demand and related CO₂ emissions could be saved, still not enough to reach the political goals. Therefore, renovation or renewal of buildings and of the use of renewable energy sources have to be implemented jointly for achieving the desired savings.
The methods used to estimate the characteristics of Bavaria’s residential building stock as well as its heating energy demand and related CO₂ emissions for the year 2050 are presented. Alternative goals are given which base upon the achievable final energy saving for a realistic renovation scenario accompanied by further reduction of CO₂ emissions by using renewable energies.