Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

Abstract

Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.