Advanced Load Effect Model for Probabilistic Structural Design

M. Sýkora

Abstract


In probabilistic structural design some actions on structures can be well described by renewal processes with intermittencies. The expected number of renewals for a given time interval and the probability of “on“-state at an arbitrary point in time are of a main interest when estimating the structural reliability level related to the observed period. It appears that the expected number of renewals follows the Poisson distribution. The initial probability of “on”-state is derived assuming random initial conditions. Based on a two-state Markov process, the probability of “on”-state at an arbitrary point in time then proves to be a time-invariant quantity under random initial conditions. The results are numerically verified by Monte Carlo simulations. It is anticipated that the proposed load effect model will become a useful tool in probabilistic structural design. The aims of future research are outlined in the conclusions of the paper. 

Keywords


rectangular wave renewal process; probability of “on”-state; expected number of renewals; action on structures

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ISSN 1210-2709 (Print)
ISSN 1805-2363 (Online)
Published by the Czech Technical University in Prague