DETECTION OF NONSTATIONARITIES OF SEVERAL SMALL CZECH RIVERS BY STATISTICAL METHODS

Autoři

  • Daniela Jarušková Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Mathematics, Thárukova 7, 166 29, Prague 6, Czech Republic
  • Hana Horáková Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Mathematics, Thárukova 7, 166 29, Prague 6, Czech Republic
  • Ladislav Satrapa Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Structures , Thárukova 7, 166 29, Prague 6, Czech Republic

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14311/CEJ.2015.01.0005

Klíčová slova:

Climate change, discharges, statistical methods, changes in annual means, changes in seasonal behaviour.

Abstrakt

The paper presents some results of a research devoted to a statistical analysis of discharges in pilot catchments in the Czech Republic with the aim to detect changes in their stochastic behaviour that might be caused by climate changes. The nonstandard statistical methods are applied to detect changes in annual means as well as in seasonal behaviour of runoffs series.

Stažení

Data o stažení nejsou doposud dostupná.

Reference

Milly, P.C.D., Dunne, K.A., 2005. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438, 347-350.

Wetherald R.T., 2010. Changes of time mean state and variability of hydrology in response to a doubling and quadrupling of CO2. Climatic Change 102, 651-670

Middelkoop, H., Daamen, K., Gellens, D., Grabs, W., Kwadijk, J.C.J., Lang, H., Parmet. B.W.A.H., Schädler, B., Schulla, J., Wilke, K., 2001. Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Clim. Change 49, 105-128.

Nohara, D., Kitoh, A., Hosaka, M., Oki, T., 2006. Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble., J. Hydrometeor. 7, 1076-1089.

Gudmundsson, L., Tallaksen. L.M., Stahl, K., Clark, D.B., Dumont, E., Hagemann, S., Bertrand. N., Getren, D., Heinke, J., Hanasaki, N., Voss, F., Koirala, S., 2012. Comparing large-scale hydrological model simulations to observed runoff percentiles in Europe, J. Hydrometeor. 13, 604-620.

Klein, B., Lingemann, I., Nilson, E., Krahe, P., Maurer, T., Moser, H., 2012. Key concepts for the analysis of climate change impacts for river basin management in the River Danube, River Systems 20, Issue 1-2, 7-21.

Hanel. M., Vizina A., Máca P., Pavlásek J., 2012. A multi-model assessment of climate change impact on hydrological regime in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrol. Hydromech 60, 152-161.

Pekárková, P., Miklánek, P., Pekár, J., 2003. Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation of the main rivers of the word during the 19th-20th centuries. Journal of Hydrology 274, 62-79.

Dai, A., Qian, T., Trenberth, K.E., Milliman, J.D., 2009. Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004. J. Climate 22, 2773-2792.

Reeves, J., Chen, J., Wang, X.L., Lund, R., Lu, QiQi, 2006. A review and comparison of changepoint detection techniques for climate data. J. of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46, 900-914.

Jandhyala, V. K., Fotopoulos, S. B., MacNeill, I. B., and Liu, P., 2013. Inference for single and multiple change-points in time series. Journal of Time Series Analysis 34, 423-446.

Cobb, G.W. , 1978. The problém of the Nile. Conditional solution to a change-point problem. Biometrika 65, 243 – 251.

Jarušková, D., 1997. Some problems with applications of change-point detection methods to enviromnemtal data. Environmetrics 8, 469-483.

Jarušková, D., 1998. Change-point detection for dependent data and application to hydrology. Istatistik. Journal of the turkish statistical association 1, 9-23.

Jarušková, D., 2013. Statistical methods for detecting changes in mean annual cycle and their application to several runoff series of European rivers. In: Proceedings of ICWRER 2013, DOI 10.5675/ICWRER_2013, 329-345.

Satrapa, L., 2007. Účinky klimatické změny na vodní stavby In: 7. konferencia s medzinárodnou účasťou VPLYV VODOHOSPODÁRSKYCH STAVIEB NA TVORBU A OCHRANU ŽIVOTNEHO PROSTRIEDIA. Bratislava: Slovenská technická univerzita, s. 73-76. ISBN 978-80-227-2729-7.

Satrapa, L., 2007. Effects of climate change to hydraulic structures. In: Influence of water management structures to the development and the protection of the environment, STU Bratislava. 73-76.

Satrapa, L., 2010. Globální vlivy na navrhování hydraulických objektů přehrad v České republice. In Hydrologické dny 2010 - Voda v měnícím se prostředí. Praha: Český hydrometeorologický ústav, s. 585-590. ISBN 978-80-86690-84-1.

Satrapa, L. - Zukal, M., 2012. Využití vodních toků v měnícím se klimatu a hydrologickém režimu. In: Young Scientist 2012. Košice: Stavebná fakulta TÚ, díl 5., čl. č. 25., s. 163-170. ISBN 978-80-553-0904-0.

Csörgő, M. and Horváth, L., 1997. Limit theorems in change point analysis, J. Wiley, New York.

Antoch, J., Hušková, M., 2001. Permutation tests for a change point analysis. Statist. Probab. Letters 53, 37 – 46.

Anderson, T.W., 1984. An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis, second edition. John Wiley, New York.

Aston, J.A.D. and Kirch, C., 2012. Detecting and estimating changes in dependent functional data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 109, 204-220.

Stahování

Publikováno

2015-04-30

Jak citovat

Jarušková, D., Horáková, H., & Satrapa, L. (2015). DETECTION OF NONSTATIONARITIES OF SEVERAL SMALL CZECH RIVERS BY STATISTICAL METHODS. Stavební Obzor - Civil Engineering Journal, 24(1). https://doi.org/10.14311/CEJ.2015.01.0005

Číslo

Sekce

Articles